The book and the header image are designed by Ibrahim Sayed
Official Facebook https://www.facebook.com/IbrahimSayed.OfficalArtPage

---

Author: Koji Sakane

Introduction

　　　As an author, I have no way of knowing when you will read this book. In April 2019, President Bashir, who had been in power for 30 years, was ousted by popular demonstrations in Sudan, and a democratic transitional government was born. Although the democratization process has continued since then, a military coup occurred in October 2021, and a military clash occurred between the Sudanese National Army and the paramilitary RSF in April 2023. Since then, as of January 2024, the RSF has been dominant, and the military stalemate continues, with 8 million people, equivalent to one-sixth of the population, fleeing both inside and outside the country, and half of the population being forced into a situation in need of humanitarian assistance.
　　　I would like to look back on history on a longer scale. In 2022, a group of researchers from the Oxford University Big Data Institute published a paper arguing that the origin of humankind was in the middle Nile basin, near what is now River Nile State in Sudan. Sudan has fertile soil thanks to the blessings of the Nile River, and has exported agricultural products and livestock to Middle East countries. It has Khartoum University, which was ranked first or second under British colonial rule during the period of the British colonization, and is a country with many intellectuals. Since independence, democratization movements have been active, and the country has a history of military-led governments being overthrown by democratization movements many times. Furthermore, until South Sudan gained independence from Sudan in 2011, Sudan was the largest country in Africa and among the Arab League countries.
　　　Why has Sudan, which is blessed with a rich natural environment and people, become a country facing such a humanitarian crisis? And why has the democratization process stalled in Sudan, which has a long history of democratization movements? I would like to take a record of the history so far, for those who will be involved in the future of Sudan and the Sudanese people.

 

1. What is the Sudanese identity?

　　　First, we will touch on the identity of Sudan.
　　　Anyone who has ever interacted with the Sudanese has probably felt comfortable with their quiet and kind nature. I was stationed in Khartoum, Sudan from February 2021 to April 2023, and felt a deep sense of comfort in the Sudanese people's sensitive and considerate nature, and I wanted to live in this country for a long time.
　　　For example, on the Islamic holiday called Eid al-Adha, sheep or goats are slaughtered and served to poor people in the neighborhood and others, and the Sudanese people continue to faithfully follow such Islamic custom. The spirit of "charity", which gives support to people in difficult situations, is also prevalent in everyday life, and the culture of willingly helping those in need remains, not just on this holiday. Water jars are placed on the side of the road in various places on the streets, and these are provided by residents so that people passing by their houses can drink water freely (Photo 1). Such water jars can be seen not only in rural villages but also along the main streets of the capital, Khartoum.

 Photo1

 

　　　Sudan has historically inherited a culture of tolerance towards other ethnic groups. Mecca in Saudi Arabia is located across the Red Sea from Sudan. Muslims make the pilgrimage to Mecca, and Sudan is a country along the pilgrimage route. Muslims who make the pilgrimage have been warmly welcomed by the people of Sudan. The Hausa people of Nigeria are an ethnic group that settled in Sudan on their pilgrimage from Nigeria to Mecca. The people of Sudan have warmly welcomed the Hausa people and have coexisted without conflict, at least until the military coup in October 2021.
　　　However, it is not necessarily true that such a culture has remained unchanged since ancient times. Currently, over 90% of the populations of Sudan are Muslim, but looking back at the history of Sudan, there was Christian Nubian Kingdom in Sudan from at least the 5th century to the 16th century, and it is believed that Islam was introduced after the 16th century. Historically, Sudan has been under the influence of Christianity longer than Islam.
　　　Sudan took on its current form as a country only after 2011, and until then, South Sudan was part of Sudan. In terms of population composition, Arab Muslims are the majority in Sudan today, while Black Christians were the majority in South Sudan, and before 2011, people including these black Christians made up what is known as Sudan.
　　　In addition, in the Darfur region in western Sudan, there was an Islamic state called the Sultanate of Darfur, ruled by a black sultan for about 300 years from 1603 to 1916, but it was annexed by the British-Egyptian colony in 1916, and after independence in 1956, it became part of Sudan.
　　　The word "Sudan" means "land where Black people live" in Arabic, and in a broad sense refers to the wide Sahel region from around Senegal in West Africa to East Africa. This suggests that the people of Sudan were seen from the Arab world as people living on the frontline of Black Africa.
　　　In other words, depending on which era is taken as the starting point, the ethnic composition and religion of the people of Sudan vary greatly, and it is thought that the identity of Sudan has also changed over time.

 

2. From independence to the birth of the Bashir regime (1956-1989)

　　　Sudan gained independence from the British-Egyptian joint rulership in 1956, but the prototype of Sudan's current form and identity can be said to have been created during the Nimeiry regime, which seized power in a coup in 1969 and ruled Sudan until 1985.
　　　Before independence, Sudan was under colonial rule by Egypt with the consent of the British, but it was not easy for Egypt to maintain poor Sudan, and independence was achieved by giving up Sudan in response to Sudan's demand for independence. The Nimeiry regime, which was established by a military coup in 1969, maintained a long-term government for 16 years and built good relations with Western countries. In the 1970s, it signed investment agreements with countries such as the Netherlands, Switzerland, and France, and Nimeiry also served as Chairman of the Organization of African Unity (OAU) from 1978 to 1979. On the other hand, it was not easy to unify Sudan after independence, which has a vast land area and diverse ethnic groups. During the Nimeiry administration, the Arab people living in the Nile River Basin strengthened their influence, and Islamism progressed.
　　　　In terms of economic policy, the government adopted a policy to export agricultural products to Middle East countries by utilizing the abundant water resources and fertile soil of the Nile River, and strongly promoted water projects in the Nile River Basin. Originally, Sudan's agricultural products were mainly for domestic consumption, but the switch to promoting agricultural exports led to a decrease in the supply of agricultural products to non-agricultural workers such as nomads. During the colonial era, Sudan was governed as separate administrative units in the north and south, and since independence, the people of the southern region, which is now South Sudan, have been left behind in development and have engaged in the Anyanya Resistance Movement (the so-called First Civil War) demanding autonomy. The development centered on the Nile River Basin under Nimeiry's government resulted in a development gap between the people in the Nile Basin and the people of the southern region, as well as the eastern, northeastern, and western regions that are outside the Nile Basin, and became a factor in the creation of resistance movements by people outside the Basin.
　　　In addition, in the 1970s, while Sudan chose a policy of promoting agricultural exports, such as by promoting irrigation projects, the fall in international prices of agricultural products left the country with a large amount of foreign debt, and with the advice of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and others, it adopted a structural adjustment policy and implemented austerity measures. Between 1980 and 1985, Sudan's currency fell sharply, the economy deteriorated, and public protests against Nimeiry's government increased, which triggered Nimeiry's downfall in 1985.
　　　Regarding the influence of religion, Nimeiry initially adopted socialist policies and did not have a strong Islamic color, but as he implemented strict economic policies that drew criticism from the public, he came under the influence of groups with strong Islamist colors such as the Muslim Brotherhood, and in 1983 introduced Sharia Law as national policy. This caused opposition from non-Muslims such as Christians, especially those in the southern region, and became the trigger for the second civil war.
　　　Under these circumstances, a military coup occurred when Nimeiry was visiting the United States in 1985, and Nimeiry’s government collapsed. In 1986, Sadiq al-Mahdi became Prime Minister, but the fragile coalition government made political management unstable, and another military coup occurred in 1989, leading to the birth of the Bashir regime.

 

3. The Bashir Regime (1989-2019)

　　　Omar al-Bashir, who came to power in a military coup in 1989, maintained a long-term government for 30 years until his downfall in the democratic revolution in April 2019. During this period, the military and Islamism were strongly linked, and the conservative Arab mainstream in the Nile River Basin, who were mainly farmers, accumulated wealth and expanded their control over the countryside. At the same time, the Janjaweed (said to mean "devils on horseback"), a militia organization centered on non-mainstream Arab nomadic people, or the current RSF, took advantage of this trend and gained power.
　　　The military coup in 1989 was carried out by Islamist Hassan al-Turabi and General Bashir of the army, but Bashir later ousted Turabi and established a dictatorship. Bashir established state-own corporations run by the military, and created a system in which these corporations sold not only military supplies but also other supplies, such as agricultural machineries. The military received the income generated by these corporations, which became a valuable source of income for the military. At that time, Sudan was the third largest arms exporter in Africa. The military was also deployed to various parts of Sudan (mainly in the current territory of South Sudan) to secure and preserve the interests of oil resources and pipelines discovered in the southern part of the country. Measures addressed to social development needs such as health and education remained delayed, and areas outside the Nile River Basin continued to be left behind in development. Furthermore, people in the southern region and other areas outside the Nile River Basin accumulated dissatisfaction with the system that promoted the monopoly of oil interests, which became a factor in strengthening the democratization movement against the government. The issue on southern region resulted in strengthening the South Sudan independence movement, which led to the independence of South Sudan in 2011.
　　　Meanwhile, at the time of independence in 1956, the Darfur region in western Sudan was home to Arab and African peoples, and the distinction between their identities was unclear due to intermarriage. However, preferential treatment for Arab peoples that had been implemented since the Nimeiry regime, and the effects of the famine in the 1980s, caused conflicts and struggles over water and land in the Darfur region to intensify. After Bashir came to power, the policy of suppressing African peoples by the Arabs became more visible, and the formation of rebel groups by African peoples and the influx of weapons and fighters from Chad and Libya, which border Darfur, escalated the conflicts in Darfur. Bashir deployed the military and had the Darfur militia Janjaweed put down rebel groups on the ground, which led to the Darfur genocide in 2003.
　　　The Bashir regime’s relationship with the West deteriorated and it was subject to economic sanctions because Turabi, who conspired with the 1989 coup, harboured Osama bin Laden, the mastermind behind the September 11 attacks, in Sudan. This resulted in the Bashir regime being less likely to be monitored by the West, which is thought to have led to the Bashir regime building a stronger centralized system. Although the country's external debts ballooned, it left them unpaid without responding to demands for debt repayment.
　　　Meanwhile, domestically, it had abundant sources of funding, thanks to oil and newly discovered gold deposits. Subsidies were given to gasoline, electricity, and bread, and people were able to use public services and buy goods at low prices. In other words, although social services such as education and health were not necessarily sufficient, people were able to live relatively stable lives as long as they did not question the dictatorial system under the Bashir regime.
　　　The characteristics of the democratization movement during the Bashir regime changed significantly with the independence of South Sudan in 2011. Before South Sudan's independence, the main driving force behind the democratization movement was dissatisfaction with the government in the southern region of Sudan, which had been left behind in development. However, with South Sudan's independence, this factor disappeared. The new driving force of the democratization movement was dissatisfaction with the corruption and dictatorial system under the Bashir regime, and dissatisfaction with the southern region, which remained in Sudan's territory after South Sudan's independence, and other regions, such as Darfur and eastern part.
　　　During the 30 years of Bashir's regime, the Janjaweed, an almost unknown Darfur militia, was transformed into the RSF, a paramilitary organization that could not be ignored in Sudan. Bashir used the Janjaweed to suppress the intensifying conflict in Darfur. Later, at the request of the Janjaweed, he allowed them to have a base in Khartoum, renamed the Janjaweed to Rapid Support Force (RSF) in 2013 and incorporated them into the government's military structure. It is said that Bashir, who was increasingly isolated internationally, agreed to South Sudan's independence in 2011 with the intention of improving international relations. Independence for South Sudan, however, would mean the loss of oil interests, which exist in enormous quantities in South Sudanese territory, and he also encountered opposition from conservative forces within the country. In Sudan, where military coups have occurred repeatedly, Bashir, who came from the military himself, feared military coups and founded the RSF as a device to deter the military from running wild.
　　　Bashir also sent the RSF as fighters to the Libyan civil war and the Yemeni civil war. In the Yemeni civil war, the RSF sided with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which supported the Yemeni government, and RSF leader Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo (known as Hemedti) created opportunities to build relationships with key figures in the government, such as the crown princes of Saudi Arabia and the UAE, and established a route through which large amounts of money flowed to the RSF and the Bashir government.
　　　Since the conflict in Darfur, the RSF has been burning villages all over Darfur, driving out people and confiscating land. Darfur has a large amount of gold reserves, and the RSF has established a system to mine and smuggle gold, which has become a major source of funding for the RSF. With the independence of South Sudan, the profits from oil exploration in Sudan have decreased significantly, so the RSF has become a force with great financial influence through gold production and smuggling.
　　　In the late 2010s, public discontent grew due to Bashir’s stalled economic policies and monopolistic political management, and he was ousted under the democratic revolution of April 2019. The military and RSF were unable to resist the growing momentum of the democratization movement and encouraged Bashir to abdicate. The strong military organization and RSF that Bashir himself had created and nurtured for 30 years ended the political career of their foster father.

 

4. Transitional Government to Democracy (April 2019 to October 2021)

　　　After several months of unstable situation following Bashir's abdication in April 2019, the Sovereign Council was established in August 2019 as the country's highest decision-making body, and the government established a democratic transitional government with democrat Abdullah Hamdouk as prime minister. As a roadmap for the establishment of a democratic government, the Sovereign Council agreed that the first half of the council until November 2021 would be chaired by the Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces, Abdel Fattah Al Burhan, and the democratic faction would serve as chairman in the second half.
　　　This was a period when the democratic revolution was realized, support from Western countries was resumed, and various reforms were implemented to realize a democratic society. In addition to the prime minister, key posts such as ministers in each ministry were assigned to the factions that made up the FFC (Force of Freedom and Change), a coalition of democratic parties, and the Empowerment Dismantling Committee expelled people involved in corruption from public office. As a result, personnel changes were made not only at the minister level, but also at the technical level, such as directors and section chiefs of each ministry.
　　　In addition, the elimination of foreign debt, which had ballooned to $60 billion, was discussed, and various economic reforms were implemented. Until then, the foreign exchange rate had been fixed and illicit transactions were rampant, but a free floating exchange rate system was introduced to allow the official rate to fluctuate in accordance with market conditions, and subsidies were cut and austerity measures were implemented in order to reconstruct the deficit-ridden finances. The currency was devalued to one-eighth, and the prices of daily necessities such as gasoline, electricity, and bread rose significantly. The inflation rate in 2021 exceeded 380% compared to the previous year.
　　　In addition, as pro-democratic people who had never been involved in administrative management became executives of the administration and austerity measures were introduced, budget allocations to each ministry and salary payment tended to be delayed, and government public services such as medical service and education were disrupted and the quality of government services declined.
　　　The public's dissatisfaction was not only limited to those who were part of the former government who had been ousted due to corruption, but also spread to the general public as the social and economic turmoil and deterioration occurred, and by around July 2021, public demonstrations were directed not only at the military, but also at the political and administrative management of the democratic transition government. In addition to these popular demonstrations, civil servants and other government workers began to demonstrate and strike, demanding swift salary payment and wage increases.
　　　In early October 2021, a group of FFC members expressed dissatisfaction with the political management of the FFC mainstream, which they felt favored only certain factions within the FFC, and split off from the FFC to establish FFC2, leading to growing discord at the political level of the democratic camp.

 

5. From the coup to the military clash (October 2021 to April 2023)

　　　Taking advantage of this social situation, the military staged a coup on October 25, 2021. Prime Minister Hamdouk and other key democratic leaders were detained or placed under house arrest, and some leaders fled the country for fear of being detained.
　　　The official reason for the coup was to rebuild the chaotic social and economic situation, but the real reason was the upcoming transfer of the chairmanship of the Sovereign Council from the military to the democratic faction in November. Under the democratic transitional government, various reforms were underway to establish a democratic government, with the support of donor countries, the United Nations, the World Bank, and others, though several difficulties and setbacks existed. Government control of gold, which had been smuggled out, and transparent customs administration were also under consideration, and a review of state-own corporations run by the military was also within the scope of reform. There was concern that if these reforms proceeded, both the military and the RSF would lose the financial resources they had been using, and become weaker.
　　　In addition, the International Criminal Court was also pursuing past war crimes, and both the RSF, which had been involved in various forms of oppression, including the Darfur genocide, and the national military were likely worried about the deepening involvement of the international community, including Western countries, into Sudan.
　　　Since the coup, democrats have been holding demonstrations and other protests, but the FFC, which is a group of politicians, has lost its presence, and the main protesters have been the Resistance Committee, which is formed on a community basis. However, the difference in military power between the Resistance Committee's non-violent demonstration group and the military is obvious, and the Resistance Committee has no concrete strategy or tactics to break the situation after the coup, so it has not been able to change the situation after the coup.
　　　The Western countries issued a statement condemning the coup and made efforts to resume the democratic transitional government, but they have not been able to achieve results and have suspended new development projects. This stalemate lasted for more than a year, during which the socio-economic situation has deteriorated significantly under the military, which has no experience in administrative management, and stagnation has continued.
　　　The United States, the United Kingdom, and other Western countries, as well as the United Nations, have been working to resolve the situation, by inviting major Middle East countries such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE into process. With these series of external coordination, in December 2022, a framework agreement for the resumption of the democratic transitional government was concluded between the military and the democratic faction. This framework agreement presented five preconditions for the re-establishment of the democratic transitional government, and the solution of these preconditions was to be conducted one by one from January 2023 onwards. These five preconditions are "Re-establishment of the Empowerment Dismantling Committee," "Implementation of the Juba Peace Agreement," "Resolution of the Eastern Sudan Problem," "Transitional Justice," and "Security Sector Reform." All of these are fundamental issues in Sudan's domestic conflict, and it was thought that their resolution would not progress easily, but contrary to such expectations, the resolution of these issues progressed at a rapid pace, and as of the end of March, only "security sector reform" remained. In early April, the planned date for the resolution of this issue and the planned date for the re-establishment of the democratic transitional government were also announced, and expectations for the resumption of the democratic transitional government were greatly growing.

 

6. From the outbreak of military clash to the present (April 2023 to January 2024)

　　　Under these circumstances, on April 15, 2023, a military clash broke out between the military and the RSF. Both sides belong to the same military branch of the government, and until then, although tensions between them had risen, they had never engaged in armed clash. Both sides knew that fighting between them would lead to an irreversible situation.
　　　Nevertheless, armed conflict broke out because the "security sector reform" aimed at re-establishing a democratic transitional government was a vital issue for both sides, as it determined the survival of their organizations. Specifically, security sector reform refers to the issue of integrating the military and the RSF. While the military announced that "integration will be achieved within two years," the RSF refused to follow this idea, stating that "integration will take at least 10 years."
　　　The fighting between the two sides began in the early hours of April 15, when the RSF raided Burhan's residence and took control of key bases such as Khartoum International Airport. Air Force planes flew low over Khartoum city from the morning, bombing the airport and other targets, and fighting broke out at several bases in the city.
　　　Initially, it was thought that the fighting between the two sides would soon end with the military subjugating the RSF. This was because there was an overwhelming difference in military power between the military, which had sophisticated equipment such as fighter jets and tanks and trained soldiers, and the RSF, whose basic unit was a pickup truck equipped with small arms and who recruited young people from Darfur and neighboring countries as fighters.
　　　However, as of January 2024, the fighting is unfolding with the RSF's advantage. The initial fighting took place at military bases and major government facilities in the capital, Khartoum, as well as in the Darfur region, which is the RSF's backyard. After that, the RSF invaded major cities on the route connecting Darfur and Khartoum, and in December 2023, it also invaded Wad Medani, the provincial capital of Gezira State, Sudan's grain-producing region, greatly expanding its territory, mainly in the southwestern part of the country (Figure 1). In August 2023, the army's Supreme Commander, Burhan, moved from Khartoum to Port Sudan, the Provincial Capital of Red Sea State. 

Figure 1

Sudan Humanitarian Update (21 January 2024) [EN/AR] | OCHA (unocha.org)

　　　The RSF's dominance in the battlefield is likely due to its abundant financial resources from gold mining and smuggling businesses, and its extensive combat experience from its participation in the Yemeni and Libyan civil wars. A report prepared by experts from the UN Security Council points out that the UAE continues to export arms to the RSF even after the military clash in April 2023.
　　　The head of the RSF, Hemedti, is also increasing his diplomatic presence. On January 1, 2024, Hemedti signed an agreement in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, with Taqaddum, a civil coalition organization headed by former Prime Minister Hamdouk. The Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), a regional organization formed by East African countries, organized a special summit in Uganda on January 18, 2024, to promote the resolution of the Sudan issue. IGAD invited Mr. Burhan, and Mr. Hemedti. While Mr. Hemedti attended, but Mr. Burhan refused. Consequently, Mr. Hemedti met with other African Heads of State and Annette Weber, EU Special Envoy for the Horn of Africa, as if he were the Head of State of Sudan. Mr. Hemedti also visited Rwanda in December 2023 to continue building relationships.
　　　Since April 2023, a serious humanitarian crisis has occurred in Sudan. As of January 2024, 1.72 million people have fled the country and 6.09 million people have displaced within the country (Figure 2). Of these, 3.5 million people have evacuated from Khartoum State, which has the capital of the country. In addition, 24.8 million people, equivalent to more than half of the population, are in need of humanitarian assistance, but sufficient humanitarian assistance has not been provided as the fighting continues. According to the United Nations, as of January 24, the funding rate for the humanitarian assistance plan required for 2024 is merely 3.1%. 

Figure 2

DTM Sudan Weekly Displacement Snapshot 18 | Displacement Tracking Matrix (iom.int)

 

7. For the future of Sudan

　　　In this chapter, I have described how the political process has progressed since independence from colonial rule, and how the democratization movement and development process have unfolded in Sudan, while placing Sudan's identity issue at its base.
　　　Looking back at the flow of events so far, the political and development process has been a process in which the Arab peoples of the Nile River Basin have expanded the influence of Islamism since independence in Sudan, which originally meant "the land where the black people live," and have extended their control over the entire country. On the other hand, Hemedti, a minority Arab person different from the mainstream Arabs, has increased his influence by taking advantage of the power of the mainstream Arabs of the Nile River Basin, and has finally expanded to the point of swallowing up the vested interests of the mainstream Arabs. As a result, South Sudan separated from Sudan, which had a diverse society where Arabs and Africans coexisted at the time of independence, and the people of Darfur, which was an independent country until the beginning of the 20th century, were forced into a dire situation where they were forced to live as refugees after being annexed by Sudan and ruled by the mainstream faction in the Nile River Basin and subjected to massacres by the Janjaweed.
　　　The democratization process was a movement calling for democratic political management and the implementation of fair development policies from the dictatorial regime created by the coup, but the main actors changed with the times and the agenda shifted. After the coup in 2021 and the military clash in 2023, the momentum of democratization has greatly weakened, and with many people losing their livelihoods, it is unclear how it will develop in the future.
　　　Ruling by force always carries the risk of inviting new rule by force, and there are limits to sustaining stability and development for a long time. Resources such as oil and gold are finite, and people cannot live a prosperous life unless social services such as health and education are well provided. This is true even for the descendants of military rulers.
　　　The source of Sudan's wealth is its diversity, which embraces a diverse population. While natural resources are finite, human resources can be invested in the next generation through education and other means, and by reproduction, it is possible to build an even prosperous society. A diverse society is inherently resilient and able to overcome various crises. However, looking back at the modern history of Sudan, the system of monopolizing wealth by a small ruling class destroyed the prosperous society that once existed and embraced a diverse population, lost its territory and natural resources, and pushed the country itself into a survival and humanitarian crisis. This is the point to which we should return. For the future and development of Sudan, it is necessary to accept diverse people and rebuild a society in which all people can enjoy the benefits of development. 

---

(The views expressed in this paper are the author's own and do not represent the official views of the organization to which the author belongs. This article are produced based on the Chapter 3 of a book “Aspiring to Sudan’s Future – Eyewitnesses of Revolution, Coup and Conflicts“ written in Japanese language.)